Osama bin Laden admits 'mistakes' in Iraq

An audiotape recently released purports to carry a message from Osama bin Laden encouraging unity among the Sunni tribal groups and al Qaeda fighters in Iraq. The tape calls for unity under the aegis of the "Islamic nation" and chides the various anti-coalition militants in Iraq for their disunity. Bin Laden goes on to admit what he calls mistakes committed by al Qaeda in Iraq, referring to that group's attacks on Sunni tribal leaders. The leaders of Anbar Awakening in al Anbar and Salahuddin Awakening in Samarra were assassinated by al Qaeda and provoked an outcry against the tactics of foreign militants in Iraq. An Islamist website recently posted a message announcing a new coalition of anti-al Qaeda and anti-Occupation militants called the "Political Council of Iraqi Resistance." One gets the impression that al Qaeda suffered a serious blow to its viability as a movement in Iraq with its assaults on co-religious leaders.

Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan made a similar stand against foreign militant activities in his country. The difference in Iraq is that it appears to be more of a grassroots program and therefore the condemnation has more teeth. It is unclear if the assassinations were carried out by rogue elements within al Qaeda in Iraq or whether bin Laden is backpedaling as a result of the popular Sunni outcry against the foreign militants. Regardless, it appears bin Laden, or whomever represents the central authority of al Qaeda is trying to reassert its moral authority as protector of true Islam. That authority which was responsible for creating a popular sympathy within the Muslim world suffered a huge blow as a result of its swift reprisals against fellow Muslims.

Cracks are appearing in the moral armor of the major militant groups in Iraq. Moqtada al-Sadr's disbanded his militia as a result of attacks on fellow Shiites during an important religious festival and al Qaeda's attacks on fellow Sunnis has led to some tribal groups siding with America and her allies. It remains to be seen whether the coalition forces in Iraq can seize what appears to be a shift in initiative.

This is especially important since one of the few stable regions of Iraq, the Kurdish regions to the North, are teetering on violent conflict with Turkey. The current popular movements against foreign militants in Iraq may be nothing more than a marriage of convenience, but they present an opportunity for the US-led coalition to make real strides in the security situation. While the central government in Iraq has been unable to project any meaningful authority, it may be possible to achieve the goal of a stable Iraq despite them.

On a scale of 10 this is an 11

The Middle East Media Research Institute (www.memri.org) has translated a short Hamas film that can be seen here. It is set during the second intifada and is perhaps one of the more disturbing things I've ever seen. It glorifies the rock-slinging child martyr and is heavy on anti-Israeli propoganda. I don't think anyone can say that Israel's handling of the Palestinian situation is without fault, but it is hard to come to defense of the Palestinian cause when they produce such films.

The ghosts of Cold Wars past

Apparently Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is preparing for a visit to Russia for discussion with President Vladimir Putin. Putin has just wrapped a conference with the five nations bordering the Caspian Sea, most notably Iran. Putin voiced his support for Iran's nuclear program and the countries signed a document stating that none of the five Caspian states would allow military strikes to be launched from their soil against any of the others. Prime Minister Olmert is expected to voice concerns over Iran's nuclear program to the Kremlin. This is not Olmert's first visit to Moscow, but the timing of this one causes one's eyebrows to raise.

Recent analysis of the most recent Israeli air strike on Syrian soil show that the site was most likely a nascent nuclear facility. Some believe that the air strike was a trial run for a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities should the Iranians refuse to bow to international pressure. Now it seems the Kremlin has thrown tentative backing behind Tehran by siding with the Ahmadinejad's claim that his country's nuclear program is purely for peaceful means. Israel should be highly concerned with this turn of events. Israel suffered some near misses with Soviet intervention during their wars with the Arabs. Moscow came close on several occasions to intervening on the side of the Arabs.

Israel may not be planning any immediate strikes on Iranian sites, but it is undeniable that Israel will not tolerate a nuclear Iran. The spectre of possible reprisal from Russia surely gives them pause. Olmert is hurrying off to Moscow to try and head off such a nightmare scenario. Will the U.S.'s war on terror and Iran's nuclear ambitions drag the world into another bout of Cold War-esque proxy conflicts? Hopefully not, but that is not such a remote possibility as it was a month ago.

Another blow to Iraqi stability: Turkey preparing for military strikes in Northern Iraq

A motion before the Turkish parliament will determine whether the Turkish military will be permitted to cross the Iraqi border in pursuit of Kurdish PKK fighters. The motion would permit the military to make as many incursions across the border as necessary for one year. The PKK is a communist militia who seeks an autonomous Kurdistan in the eastern regions of Turkey. They are believed to be using the newly stable Kurdish province of Iraq as a staging ground for their attacks on targets in Turkey. The locals in that province of Iraq sympathize with the PKK's desires for autonomy and have resisted the Maliki government's persistent calls that they halt the PKK's activities in Iraq. The U.S. is understandably concerned over Turkey's apparent desire to invade Iraq. Any move to destabilize that region would endanger the routes through which most of the United States' military supplies move. The Kurds have been viewed as the most reliable allies of the U.S. led coalition out of the three major groups that make up Iraq. The U.S. risks angering the country which houses American airfields and supply bases in Turkey or antagonizing the only benign region of Iraq.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has urged a diplomatic solution to the tensions on the northern border. The question is who will deal with the Turks to bring about a cessation of attacks originating from Iraq? Maliki's government does not assert real authority outside the Green Zone in Baghdad where they struggle to reach consensus on any significant issues. The Kurds have shown themselves unwilling to crack down on their ethnic brethren and sympathize with the PKK's activities in Turkey. Will the U.S. step in to suppress the PKK? Should the U.S. military attempt to conduct military operations against Kurds it risks alienating the populace of yet another region in Iraq and creating another war zone in the country. The U.S. will be unwilling to risk such a disaster.

The Turks, not unreasonably, see their only recourse as unilateral actions against the PKK. The U.S. House of Representatives recently voted on a resolution dubbing the death of hundreds of thousands of Armenians at the hands of the Ottoman Turks, and their Kurdish subjects, a holocaust. The resolution led to an outcry from Ankara and their ambassador was temporarily recalled in protest. The vote will occur in the Turkish parliament on Wednesday, and there is every reason to believe they will approve military strikes into Northern Iraq.

Unless Turkey is willing to commit military forces to occupy Northern Iraq, they will not halt the attacks by the PKK on Turkish soil. They cannot hope to root out the 3,000 or so PKK fighters hiding among a friendly local populace without a sustained military presence. Kurdish news sources are claiming that a Turkish invasion would quickly become a 'quagmire'. That is certainly a distinct possibility in the largely pro-PKK Kurdish regions of Iraq. Irregardless of whether Turkey would be willing to invade and suppress a Kurdish population in Iraq, the U.S. would not stand for it. In all likelihood, a Turkish military offensive will result in limited successes followed by a withdrawal and the eventual resumption of attacks by the PKK.

It should be noted that Turkey is not blameless in their Kurdish problem. The father of modern Turkey, Ataturk, brutally suppressed the Kurds in his attempt to secularize the Muslim Kurds. The newly secular Turkey attempted to forcibly assimilate their diverse populace, and the Kurds resisted such assimilation especially when it came to their ethnic language and Islam.

In recent history Turkey, much like Pakistan, has escaped criticism from the U.S. over its treatment of various minority groups due to their willingness to ingratiate themselves with the Americans. Turkey has been unwilling to admit wrong doing and has felt no compulsion to do so, largely due to its friendly relations with the most powerful military in the world. The unwillingness of the Turks to entertain notions that they may have committed egregious sins against any of their citizens has built up decades of resentment in the Kurds and Armenians. The Armenians have been largely powerless to make any response, the Kurds however have reacted violently. Turkey, like every nation, must come to terms with its checkered past if it wishes to reconcile itself with what amounts to seven percent of its population. In the immediate future, Turkey cannot sit still while Kurdish rebels bomb their cities and attack their military. The real solution to the problem will require Turkey to come to terms with its past. The likelihood of that happening in time to prevent a disastrous result to Wednesday's vote is highly unlikely.

Hamas seeks to reconcile with Fatah at the end of Ramadan

Hamas' Ismail Haniya recently made overtures for reconciliation with Abbas and his Fatah party after having violently expelled them from Gaza in June. While Abbas has made no formal reply to his former prime minister, it is doubtful that Mr. Haniya will receive a favorable response. The security situation in Gaza has steadily been deteriorating due to embargoes, Israeli military strikes, worker strikes and street protests. Haniya, it seems, has been forced to come to terms with a possibly fatal mistake when he attempted to snatch sole control over Palestinian politics.

The former unity government was formed after negotiations which resulted in the Mecca accord. In February a Saudi brokered deal led to a central Palestinian government composed of both Hamas and Fatah. Only four months later, violence erupted in Gaza and Hamas seized sole control of that area.

The Palestinians are once more at a crossroads as the US-sponsored peace talks prepare to kick off in November. Hamas has been calling on all Arab nations to boycott the talks and many Arab nations have only conditionally accepted the invitation to attend. Al Jazeera reported that Haniya, making a speech before prayer marking Eid-al-Fitr, called on Abbas to refuse any calls for concessions from Israel or the U.S. Mr. Abbas will ultimately succeed or fail based on his performance in November. While Hamas is down, it is definitely not out. Any resentment built up towards Hamas in the past few months will fade if Abbas is seen as either ineffectual or an agent of the United States and Israel. However, if he can win real victories with the Israelis (over border issues especially), he will be lauded as the sole representative of the Palestinian cause.